ENGINE: East of Suez Bunker Fuel Availability Outlook

Singapore and Malaysia

Prompt VLSFO availability is tight in Singapore. Four suppliers are struggling to meet delivery schedules, a source says. Lead times of 5-9 days are recommended for VLSFO. HSFO supply is also under pressure, with lead times ranging between 5-10 days. In contrast, LSMGO remains readily available, with shorter lead times of 2-6 days.

According to Enterprise Singapore’s latest data, Singapore’s residual fuel oil stocks have averaged 7% lower so far in February compared to January. The month also witnessed a notable 20% drop in net fuel oil imports, down by 929,000 bbls, while fuel oil exports increased by 109,000 bbls, leading to the stock drawdown. Conversely, the Southeast Asian bunkering hub’s middle distillate stocks have risen, averaging 18% higher this month.

In Malaysia’s Port Klang, VLSFO and LSMGO availability remains good, with several suppliers offering stems for prompt delivery dates. However, HSFO supply is very tight as most suppliers are running low on stocks.

China and East Asia

In Zhoushan, bunker suppliers are back in action post the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Most suppliers can now deliver all grades with lead times of 5-7 days.
In China’s Dalian, VLSFO and LSMGO supply is tight, while Tianjin faces tightness across all grades. Qingdao has limited prompt availability of VLSFO and LSMGO, and HSFO supply is subject to enquiry. Southern Chinese ports like Shanghai, Yangpu, and Guangzhou are encountering tight availability of VLSFO and LSMGO, with HSFO also tight in Shanghai. However, Fuzhou and Xiamen have good availability of both low-sulphur fuel grades.

In Hong Kong, all bunker fuel grades remain readily available, with lead times of around seven days, similar to last week.

In South Korean ports, availability across all fuel grades has become tighter due to increased bunker demand. VLSFO lead times have extended to 7-11 days, compared to around seven days last week. Lead times for LSMGO have also changed from just three days to around seven days. HSFO lead times vary widely from 5-17 days. Adverse weather conditions are forecast between 20-25 February and may impact bunkering operations at key South Korean ports of Ulsan, Onsan, Busan, Daesan, Taean, and Yeosu.

In Japan, supply tightness across all bunker grades has been noted, mainly due to local refineries redirecting more fuel oil to the power and bitumen sectors, leaving less supply available for the bunker market. Lead times vary across ports, ranging from approximately five days in Tokyo, Chiba, Osaka, and Kobe, to eight days in Nagoya and Yokkaichi, and even longer periods of 12-13 days in Mizushima and Oita. This supply tightness has led to higher VLSFO prices in Japanese ports. Tokyo’s VLSFO was priced about $61/mt higher than Singapore’s on Tuesday and $54/mt higher than Zhoushan’s.

Suppliers in Subic Bay in the Philippines and Ho Chi Minh Port in Vietnam anticipate difficult bunkering conditions intermittently throughout the week due to adverse weather.

South Asia

Several Indian ports, such as Kandla, Cochin, Chennai, Visakhapatnam, Paradip, and Haldia, are facing challenges with supply shortages for VLSFO and LSMGO.

In Mumbai, some suppliers have almost run out of VLSFO and LSMGO stocks, a source says.

Adverse weather is forecast at the Indian ports of Kandla, Sikka, and Visakhapatnam on Wednesday, which could potentially disrupt bunkering operations.

On the flipside, the Sri Lankan ports of Trincomalee and Colombo have ample VLSFO and LSMGO supply, along with good availability of HSFO in Trincomalee.

Middle East

The ongoing attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea have prompted shipping companies to opt for the alternative route around Africa instead of the shorter Suez Canal route. The shift in shipping routes is gradually affecting bunker demand in Fujairah. Despite this impact, Fujairah’s bunker demand rose marginally by 2% in January, as more HSFO was bunkered during the month.

Prompt availability of all grades remains under pressure in Fujairah due to recent weather-related disruptions, which have resulted in severe bunker backlogs and delivery delays. Most suppliers are recommending lead times of 7-10 days. Additionally, strong winds were reported in the UAE ports of Fujairah and Khor Fakkan on Tuesday, with adverse weather conditions forecasted to persist on Wednesday as well.

Port operations at Jebel Ali port in the UAE resumed on Tuesday following a brief suspension the previous night, according to GAC Hot Port News. On the other hand, Omani ports including Sohar, Salalah, Duqm and Muscat have a prompt LSMGO supply available, offering a potential alternative location for bunker requirements.
Source: ENGINE, By Tuhin Roy, https://engine.online/news

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