Only a few contracts for new bulk carriers were placed in January but not a single order was booked in February, according to Bimco Shipping Analysis Manager, Filipe Gouveia. The shipowners’ organisation cited weak freight rates, high prices for new ships, long lead times, and widespread uncertainties as some of the main negatives.

A steady stream of orders in the container and tanker sectors has held newbuilding prices high and many shipyards are fully booked for years to come. Smaller bulkers ordered today can only be delivered from 2027, larger vessels from 2028, Bimco said.

“The dry bulk medium-term market outlook is currently very uncertain,” said Gouveia, “which could be affecting contracting. The outlook for iron ore and coal seems weak, while a potential return to normal Red Sea routings and burgeoning trade wars may further weaken demand.”

The world’s bulker fleet is younger than the boxship and tanker fleets but the sector still has an average age of 13 years. The current orderbook totals 10% of the current fleet, Bimco figures indicate, which is sufficient to replace older ships in a stable market. Meanwhile, although panamax contracts have been the most popular this year, driving the orderbook to 34% of the sector’s capacity, new orders were still down 83% year on year.

The Capesize orderbook, which represents 29% of bulk carrier capacity, has the lowest orederbook to fleet ratio of just 8%. Not a single Capesize order has been placed so far this year.

In the face of weak demand growth, Gouveia expects that fleet renewal and decarbonisation are likely to drive bulk carrier contracting in the future. “Older bulkers are already less expensive,” he noted, “as climate regulations limit their sailing speeds. As regulations tighten in the medium- to long-term, recycling of older ships could be further incentivised.”

Soure: Seatrade Maritime